FTI Consulting Projects U.S. Online Retail Sales Growth Will Slow to 12.3 Percent in 2019
The Retail & Consumer Products practice at
Online sales growth has slowed to 13.3 percent in the most recent four quarters from 16.1 percent a year earlier, and it has weakened further to the low-12 percent range in the two most recent quarters. However, the online channel still captured nearly 43 percent of total retail sales growth in 2018, the Retail & Consumer Products practice estimates, with continued market share growth of approximately 1 percentage point expected annually through 2022.
“While several negative developments in late 2018, including a government shutdown, the escalation of trade tensions and a sharp sell-off in the financial markets, could have contributed to consumers’ skittishness, no single event could explain why shoppers curtailed spending growth in the second half of the year and continue to do so,” said
The forecast projects that online retail sales will reach
The enduring popularity of Amazon.com’s Prime Day also highlights the company’s dominance in the online retail market.
“Not many retailers, especially in this age, can say they have created their own shopping holiday,” said
About the 2019 U.S. Online Retail Forecast
FTI Consulting’s U.S. Online Retail Forecast is a bottom-up logistic growth curve (or S-curve) that best fits estimated historical market shares for various product categories since 2000. Those categories include: music and videos, books and magazines, toys and hobby, consumer electronics, sporting goods, apparel, grocery and other product categories.
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