Oregon Cap-and-Trade: An Economic Impact Analysis of SB 1574 (2016)
Lawmakers in Oregon have been considering a plan to reduce greenhouse gases through a cap-and-trade program — limiting emissions and allowing emitters to trade allowances.
Using a combination of energy market and macroeconomic models, FTI Consulting prepared a study for the Associated Oregon Industries Research and Education Foundation analyzing SB 1574 (2016), a cap-and-trade bill representative of several others under consideration in Oregon. This legislation would require Oregon to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 75 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.
The study found the following impacts to the Oregon economy and end-user prices relative to the business-as-usual forecast:
- GDP reduction of $1.3 billion by 2035 and $4.5 billion by 2050
- Employment reduction of 4,800 by 2035 and 16,900 by 2050
- Real income loss of $1.8 billion by 2035 and $6.1 billion by 2050
- Gasoline prices reaching $7.60 per gallon by 2050
- Residential electricity prices increasing up to 93% by 2050
- Residential natural gas prices increasing 179% by 2050