Green Hydrogen Transportation Tariff Under Three Policy Scenarios
Forecast of Methane and Hydrogen Transportation Network Tariffs to 2050
April 24, 2023DownloadsDownload Report
FTI Consulting quantified future hydrogen transportation tariffs options under different policy scenarios in Europe, to provide fact-based analysis in the discussions regarding regulation and financing of hydrogen networks.
Our study thus provides:
- The first ever quantification of decarbonized hydrogen national transport tariffs in major EU countries, according to the different regulatory frameworks under discussion, and according to different speeds of deployment.
- A modelling of flows to and within the EU of decarbonized hydrogen, based on the national infrastructure operators' forecasts.
- A quantification of the increase in natural gas transportation costs due to declining methane flows in different decarbonization scenarios, as a comparator to hydrogen tariffs.
The actual findings are the following:
- In the baseline scenarios (Scenario 0) hydrogen tariffs are 3x current methane tariffs in 2030, and methane tariffs are more than 2x their 2030 level in 2050, risking discouraging any European wholesale flows.
- A unified tariff for hydrogen & methane addresses these issues (Scenario 1), but settles up to 22% above 2030 methane tariffs as gas network significantly expands.
- Supporting the hydrogen network with taxpayers' subsidies, to either cover extra-cost of ramp-up to 2050 (Scenario 2) or 75% of hydrogen CAPEX (Scenario 3), allows to deliver H2 tariffs respectively in line or below 2030 methane tariffs.
- The total amount of taxpayer subsidies to the H2 network in Scenarios 2 and 3 is however expected to reach EUR 26bn and EUR 76bn, respectively, over 2024-2050.