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How the War on Iran Is Reshaping Transportation & Logistics

Strategic Insight for Shippers, Carriers and Investors

The outbreak of conflict involving Iran has resulted in a supply chain shock that is reverberating across every freight mode. Fuel prices have spiked, the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed, ocean and air rates have surged and shippers have scrambled to pull imports forward before costs climb further. The question now is whether this is a short-lived disruption or the beginning of a structural reset. Either way, the event demands immediate tactical response and perhaps longer-term strategic repositioning.

The Energy Shock: Fuel Prices Ignite a Cost Cascade

Oil markets reacted instantly, with Iran accounting for ~4% of global oil output, the conflict created immediate supply anxiety.¹ Brent crude surged well above $100 per barrel within days of hostilities intensifying, and diesel prices followed in lockstep.^2,3 Fuel is expected to remain unstable as President Donald Trump and his administration continue to outline their strategy and timeline.

For carriers, fuel is one of the largest variable costs, and the math is unforgiving. A nearly 30% spike in diesel translates directly into margin compression that no responsible operator can absorb quietly.⁴ Additional fuel surcharges hit almost instantaneously. Carriers who had locked in fuel hedges caught a temporary reprieve, while those without coverage faced immediate P&L pressure.

The pass-through to shippers has been swift and significant. Expect fuel surcharges across truckload, LTL, and intermodal to remain elevated for as long as oil prices stay high.

Strategic Move

Shippers should audit fuel surcharge mechanisms across all carrier contracts and assess exposure. Locking in fuel hedges or renegotiating surcharge caps where possible offers partial insulation. Carriers should accelerate investment in fuel efficiency and alternative-fuel fleets to reduce long-term exposure.

The Strait of Hormuz: Ocean Freight on the Edge

Roughly 20–21 million barrels of oil transit the Strait of Hormuz daily — but it is not just oil tankers bearing the risk.⁵ Container ships, bulk carriers and LNG vessels all share these waters, and the threat of mine warfare, drone strikes and Iranian naval interference has made Hormuz one of the most consequential chokepoints in global trade.

Insurance war-risk premiums for vessels transiting the Persian Gulf have spiked dramatically.⁶ Some carriers rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days to transit times from Asia and driving costs upward.^7,8

The knock-on effects on global container rates have been immediate. Capacity has tightened not because fewer ships exist, but because effective capacity has dropped as vessels take longer routes, spend more time at anchor or exit the trade lane entirely.⁹

Strategic Move

Importers should pressure-test supply chain resilience: identify suppliers in non-Gulf-exposed origins (where possible) and pull forward inventory, increasing safety stock levels for high-velocity Stock Keeping Units (“SKUs”).

Air Freight in the Spotlight: Rates Climb, Capacity Strains

Air cargo has historically served as the relief valve when ocean freight becomes unreliable or expensive. That dynamic is playing out again, but with an important constraint: air freight capacity is not infinitely elastic. Widebody belly capacity is tied to passenger demand patterns, dedicated freighter fleets are finite and the Gulf conflict has complicated flight routing for aircraft operating across certain airspace corridors.

Time-sensitive goods — electronics, pharmaceuticals, automotive parts — migrated from ocean to air as ocean timelines became unpredictable. Cargo capacity tightened, pushing air freight rates upward across trade lanes.

Cargo yields on key trade lanes rose materially as demand surged. The capacity crunch was most acute on Asia-to-North America and Asia-to-Europe lanes, where both ocean diversion demand and existing e-commerce growth were already competing for belly space.¹⁰

Strategic Move

Companies need a rapid freight triage framework — identifying which SKUs justify air, which can tolerate delay and which should shift to sea-air hybrid routing. Getting that analysis wrong in either direction is costly. Now is the time to stress-test your air freight strategy with an advisor who knows the market.

Temporary Setback or Structural Shift? Discussing What Comes Next

The freight industry has been here before — COVID-era dislocations, Red Sea attacks, port strikes, tariff shocks and more. Each event triggered surges that eventually normalized. But the Iran conflict carries attributes that differentiate it from episodic disruption.

If the conflict is contained geographically and a ceasefire or diplomatic resolution materializes within weeks, the shock will fade. The global container fleet is large, rerouting flexibility exists and markets are efficient at reallocating capacity when price signals are strong. Pull-forward demand will create a subsequent demand hangover and rates will correct.

If the conflict broadens or triggers sustained closure of the Hormuz, the disruption timeline extends materially. Rerouting becomes structural, war-risk insurance becomes a more permanent cost layer and fuel prices remain elevated as global energy markets reprice geopolitical risk into crude.

Critically, the global freight market was already fragile before this conflict. Overcapacity in ocean shipping, soft truckload demand and elevated interest rates had been suppressing carrier earnings. The conflict injected demand-side pressure onto a cost-side already under strain.

This article is intended for informational purposes and reflects market conditions as of early 2026. It does not constitute legal, financial, or investment advice.

Samantha Haberfield, a Senior Consultant in the Corporate Finance & Restructuring segment at FTI Consulting, contributed to this report.

Footnotes:

1: U.S. Energy Information Administration, “What Countries Are The Top Producers and Consumers of Oil?” (last updated Apr. 11, 2024), (accessed Mar. 11, 2026).

2: Trading Economics, “Brent Crude Oil,” (accessed Mar. 11, 2026).

3: AAA, “National Average Gas Prices,” (accessed Mar. 11, 2026).

4: Id.

5: The Business Standard, “Volume of Crude Oil Transported Through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 Q1 by Destination” (Mar. 5, 2026).

6: Hussain, Noor Zainab & Manya Saini, “Maritime Insurance Premiums Surge as Iran Conflict Widens” Reuters (Mar, 6, 2026).

7: Container News, “The Return of Container Shipping to the Red Sea: What Supply Chain Leaders Must Know in 2026” (Mar. 16, 2026).

8: MI News Network, “Shipping Giants Reroute Vessels Around Cape of Good Hope, Causing Delays & Increase in Costs,” Marine Insight (Mar. 2, 2026).

9: Jay, Tim, “Container Shipping Rates Rise as Asian Exports Recover, Hormuz Tensions Add Uncertainty,” Global Trade (Mar. 9, 2026).

10: Guinebault, Matthieu, “Iran: Air Freight Rates Surge, Sea Freight Poised to Follow,” Fashion Network (Mar. 9, 2026).