Venezuela in Flux: Commercial Implications

FTI Consulting is monitoring the rapidly evolving situation in Venezuela closely and can assist clients that have existing or potential interests in Venezuela and in the broader region. This article is the first in a series of briefings designed to keep clients informed; future installments will examine emerging geopolitical, regulatory and commercial developments. FTI Consulting is a leading global expert firm for organizations facing crisis and transformation, with regional headquarters in Bogotá, Colombia, and extensive experience involving Venezuela.

In a dramatic escalation on Saturday, January 3, 2026, the U.S. launched a military operation against Venezuela that culminated in President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, being captured by U.S. special forces.¹ President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. will temporarily “run” Venezuela to facilitate a “safe, proper and judicious transition.”²

Business Risk

Multinational companies and investors are monitoring developments closely. Among the many scenarios FTI Consulting is mapping – including further conflict, a political transition led by the opposition, and a hardening of the Chavista regime – the Trump administration’s stated intention to assume an unspecified governing role could spur an economic revival reminiscent of the 1950s, when Venezuela boasted one of the highest gross domestic products per capita in the world.³ Oil companies, in particular, may be preparing for potential market reentry should the industry’s nationalization be reversed. The Trump administration has made clear that hydrocarbons and wealth creation are central to the U.S. strategy, driven by private-sector investment.⁴

If privatization proceeds and foreign capital pours in, substantial risks may persist throughout the transition period. These could include entrenched Chavista power structures, illegal armed groups, social unrest, environmental liabilities, erosion of governance, corruption and abrupt political reversals.

How FTI Consulting Can Support You

As the details and consequences from this event come into focus, companies need a trusted advisor capable of delivering tailored, strategic support around their operations in Venezuela and the broader region.

FTI Consulting experts are well positioned to assist organizations across Latin America in multiple areas, including:

Market Entry and Exit Strategies: Advising on tactical repositioning, investment timing and emerging transactional opportunities in Venezuela’s high-risk market.
Risk Management: Developing detailed scenarios and analyzing risks (both positive and negative) emanating from market entry and capital investment in Venezuela, including quantification of expected and unexpected losses.
Country Risk Analysis and C-Suite Briefings: Providing real-time geopolitical intelligence, forward-looking risk assessments and executive briefings on the evolving risk landscape under multiple scenarios.
Business Intelligence and Fact-Finding: Conducting investigations and intelligence-gathering through specialized methods and longstanding in-country resources to support decision-making.
Stakeholder Mapping and Risk Profiling: Identifying threats from internal and external stakeholders and mitigating identified vulnerabilities of people, assets and operations.
Compliance and Integrity Reviews for Venezuelan Operations and Supply Chains: Assessing exposure to sanctions, anti-money laundering requirements and evolving legal and regulatory frameworks.
Crisis Management and Scenario Planning: Designing and stress-testing response strategies for political, security and operational escalation during the political and economic transition period in Venezuela.
Export Controls, Sanctions & Trade Advice: Navigating Venezuela’s complex and evolving sanctions regimes to ensure compliance and enable investment.
Construction Solutions and Asset Lifecycle Management: Supporting construction-related claims, project continuity, and resilient infrastructure planning under potentially volatile legal and operating conditions in Venezuela.

Amid the rapid developments underway in Venezuela, proactive advisory and risk management will be essential to safeguarding the long-term value of both existing assets and planned investments in Venezuela and similar complex markets.

FTI Consulting has a multi-disciplinary team with over 8,100 professionals operating across 32 countries and territories. Through its five core practices – Corporate Finance & Restructuring, Economic Consulting, Forensic & Litigation Consulting, Strategic Communications, and Technology Services – FTI Consulting delivers a comprehensive, integrated suite of advisory services designed to support clients at every stage of the business cycle.

For more information, please reach out to our experts Michael Cullen, Pablo Amaya, Miguel Salcedo, Chris DeSa, and Lucas Marsden-Smedley.

Footnotes:

1: Trump, Donald [@realDonaldTrump], "The United States of America has successfully carried out a large scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolas Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the Country," Truth Social (Jan. 3, 2026), https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/115830428767897167.

2: Faguy, Ana, “Trump says US will ‘run’ Venezuela and ‘fix oil infrastructure,’” BBC (Jan. 4, 2026).

3: Venuti, Emilio, “Venezuela: del esplendor al renacimiento,” El Nacional (Sept. 27, 2025).

4: Jones, Callum, “US oil giants silent on Trump claim they will spend billions on Venezuelan oil industry,” The Guardian (Jan. 3, 2026).