Microsimulation Modeling for Demand for Healthcare Services

Microsimulation Modeling for Demand for Healthcare Services

Center for Healthcare Economics and Policy

July 16, 2015

Adopting new technologies, making other major capital improvements, or changing aspects of the local care delivery system are complex decisions that have significant financial implications. Objective and robust assessments enable stakeholders to make well-informed decisions as to whether or not they should proceed with proposed improvements.

Microsimulation is a tool that allows stakeholders to more accurately forecast future, complex situations and to enact the necessary changes to prepare today, for tomorrow. Such preparations often require an upfront investment while the true payoff may not be known for some time in the future. Rather than relying on chance, Microsimulation provides an avenue to explore the effects of a proposed program (both aggregate and distributional), to decide among alternative strategies, or to fine-tune the program before rolling it out. Complex microsimulation modeling often requires significant investment and resources. Few firms have the capabilities to perform this type of modeling in house because it requires a team of experts (coders, economists, and simulation experts) and significant lead-time to develop appropriate models. The Center for Healthcare Economics and Policy (the Center) within FTI Consulting has the right team of experts in place to construct complex microsimulation models, and provides firms the option to outsource this type of modeling, saving both time and money. The Center is one of the only firms that offers microsimulation modeling, with unrivaled access to the foremost modeling experts and to the data necessary to build microsimulation models.

The Center provides healthcare economics modeling to assess and forecast the healthcare needs of a local healthcare economy both now and in the future. We recognize that simple extrapolation from existing trends is not sufficient given the dynamic healthcare environment in which providers, insurers, and governments operate. The Center’s microsimulation models are appropriately detailed and can be used to produce estimates at the service area or county, state, and national levels. The models provide economically sound estimates over time, accounting for changes in the population, economic growth, and can assess the effects of various reform initiatives. These models can produce estimates for forecasting, scenario analyses, and exploring variation in inter-area healthcare utilization.

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