South Africaʼs National and Provincial Elections Usher in Uncertainty as President Cyril Ramaphosaʼs African National Congress Fails to Secure Outright Majority
South Africa Will Have a Coalition Government for the First Time After Nelson Mandela Was Elected as President 30 Years Ago
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June 06, 2024
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Johannesburg – Talks to form a coalition government are underway after the African National Congress “ANC” fell far short of an outright majority for the first time in 30 years of democracy. South Africa is in unchartered waters as the ANC is unable to form a government, meaning that it must find a coalition partner.
Despite suffering a massive blow with just 40 percent of votes cast, the ANC remains the leading political party with six million votes nationally and will most likely lead the country’s first coalition government.
South Africa’s political stability and policy certainty - which domestic and international investors were accustomed to over the last three decades - now hinges on whether a sustainable coalition government can be formed in the wake of the 29 May poll to elect members of the national and provincial parliaments. The country’s experience of local government coalitions has been disastrous, with metros and smaller municipalities changing hands whenever parties fall out with each other.
The result is devastating for President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC, coming despite his efforts to renew the party and root out corruption following former president Jacob Zuma’s nine years at the helm. The 2024 election result is indicative of the public’s deteriorating trust in the ANC, as well as frustrations over rampant structural unemployment, poverty and crime.
President Ramaphosa has called on political parties to put aside their differences and find common ground as talks between the ANC and five parties continue.
The ANC is in discussion with the Democratic Alliance (“DA”), Economic Freedom Fighters (“EFF”) Inkatha Freedom Party (“IFP”), National Freedom Party (“NFP”) and Patriotic Alliance (“PA”). Zuma’s MK Party has not yet responded positively.
Of the 400 seats in the National Assembly, a clear majority of 201 is required to elect the President at its first sitting, scheduled for 17 June.
The top five parties are:
- African National Congress “ANC”: 40.19%
- Democratic Alliance “DA”: 21.8%
- UmKhonto weSizwe “MK”: 14.59%
- Economic Freedom Fighters “EFF”: 9.5%
- Inkatha Freedom Party “IFP”: 4%
National Assembly Seats*
*201 seats (50%+1) required to form a majority in the National Assembly.
With 27.7 million registered voters, the poll saw 16.2 million voters cast their ballots at more than 23,000 voting stations. Turnout in 2024 was 58.6 percent compared to 73 percent in the 2014 general election and 66 percent in 2019, indicating that increasing numbers of voters are opting not to participate in determining the country’s elected representatives.
Ramaphosa Faces Showdown With Zuma Faction
The Ramaphosa faction within the ANC is likely to face opposition from the remaining remnants of the Zuma- supporting Radical Economic Transformation “RET” faction, which may go so far as to call on Ramaphosa to step down as party leader – and for the party to enter into a coalition with MK and the EFF.
ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula has made clear that any demands for President Ramaphosa to step-down was a “no-go”. The ANC’s “Top Seven” officials and the National Working Committee “NWC” have met in recent days to discuss the party’s options and the National Executive Committee “NEC” will meet in Johannesburg on Thursday. It is at this meeting of the NEC that Ramaphosa and his supporters are likely to face a showdown with the RET faction, which still supports Zuma and likely assisted MK to campaign from within the ANC.
The numbers are telling. Compared to 2019, the ANC lost 71 seats in the National Assembly, the DA gained three, the EFF lost five and the IFP gained three. The ANC has retained its majority in five of the nine provinces, compared to eight of the nine in 2019.
Zumaʼs MK Deliver’s Surprise Performance
The surprise in this election came from MK, the newcomer led by Zuma, who was elected ANC President at the party’s Polokwane Conference in December 2007 and led the party for 10 years. MK has displaced the radical EFF of Julius Malema, a one-time Zuma ally and former ANC Youth League leader. Formed just six months ago in December 2023, MK replaces the EFF as the third largest political party in parliament and is now the largest party in KwaZulu-Natal, albeit short of an outright majority with a staggering 45.38 percent of the coastal province’s vote. KwaZulu-Natal is home to two strategic deep water ports located in Durban and Richard's Bay.
DA Prepares for Coalition Talks
The DA’s relatively small increase in its share of parliamentary seats and its outright majority in the Western Cape represents a victory for the party, with leader John Steenhuizen saying via a YouTube channel broadcast that it would do anything necessary to avoid a “doomsday coalition”, referring to a potential partnership between the ANC, EFF and MK.
Steenhuizen announced that former party leaders Tony Leon and Helen Zille would be part of a small team negotiating a coalition agreement with parties which share common interests in protecting and advancing the Constitution. It is clear that the DA will not be talking to MK and the EFF, nor will it join a coalition which includes either of the two radical parties.
Contentious Issues
Amongst the most contentious issues are likely to be the potential coalition partners’ positions on economic transformation policy, including the Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment “B-BBEE”, as well as land and immigration. The thorny issue of the DA’s positions on the conflict between Israel and Palestine is likely to be a major issue but the cases at the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court are well advanced, so may be a moot point. The National Health Insurance, signed into law by President Ramaphosa days before the election, is also likely to be an issue for the DA.
Possible Scenarios at National Level
Scenario 1: ANC-DA Coalition
This coalition will give the parties a clear majority in Parliament, with 62 percent of national votes and 246 seats. President Ramaphosa is more aligned with the DA’s public-private approach but his faction will face difficulties in swaying some radicals in the ANC’s NEC.
Potential impact for business: From a policy perspective, this permutation will be the more stable and predictable coalition formation, as their polices (with the exception of B-BBEE, the National Health Insurance Act and the Public Procurement Bill, et al) are market-friendly. The biggest contention will be around economic transformation objectives, as the DA is opposed to race-based policies, thus the future of localization and B-BBEE will be in the balance.
Scenario 2: ANC-EFF Coalition + smaller parties
This coalition will give the parties a majority but its stability depends on how many seats they have in parliament. The election result was a sobering outcome for both the ANC and EFF, meaning that they will be aware of the risk of further eroding their electoral base should they be unable to govern efficiently and effectively. Business will likely react negatively to this coalition, with investor sentiment likely to deteriorate due to the EFF’s more radical and populist stance.
Potential impact for business: South Africa’s economic policies will most likely lean towards greater intervention by the State in critical areas such as minerals, energy and logistics. There may be a slower just energy transition and decreased role of private players in the power producing market. B-BBEE and localization will also likely be ramped up, which will impact procurement processes.
Scenario 3: ANC-MK Coalition
This coalition is highly unlikely, but if formed it will amount to the current ANC parliamentary majority. Very little is known about MK’s policies and how this will impact governance. This permutation is seen as the most destabilizing because of the uncertainty that would follow, with very little known about the MK, and the radical proposals contained in their manifesto.
Potential impact on business: An ANC-MK coalition will sway policy in a more radical and populist direction. Bolstered by its strong performance, MK will likely yield significant negotiating power and may demand critical positions such as the Deputy President and portfolios including Defence, Police, Intelligence, Public Enterprises, Mineral Resources, Energy, and Finance.
- 5 June: Planned publication of lists for National Assembly in the Government Gazette.
- Between 6 and 21 June: First sitting of Provincial Legislatures and election of Premiers.
- 17 June: First sitting of new National Assembly and election of President.
- Presided over by the Chief Justice
- Swearing in of National Assembly Members
- Election of Speaker and Deputy Speaker
- 22 June: Inauguration of President.
- End June to early July: Cabinet announcement.
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June 06, 2024
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