Uncovering Damages: Identifying Over €100 Million of Cross-Border Trading Losses During the 2022 European Gas Crisis
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November 18, 2025
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In 2022, a global energy leader was denied access to a commercially critical European cross-border interconnection at a moment of extreme market volatility. With pipeline gas deliveries disrupted by the Russia-Ukraine war, the stakes for securing supply and protecting commercial interests were immense. To understand and quantify potential losses incurred, the client turned to FTI Consulting to assess the financial impact that was suffered. FTI Consulting concluded that more than €100 million were lost due to this denial of access, which led the client to consider its litigation options to recover losses.
Our Impact
- Through a number of scenarios incorporating varying commercial assumptions under different approaches of trading value, the client gained a clear view of the impact of a denial of access, with losses ultimately estimated at over €100 million.
- The client is now equipped with in-depth understanding of the losses it suffered, supported by independent and defensible analysis, giving them confidence in the face of volatile market conditions and heightened scrutiny.
- With this insight, the client is considering its options on whether and how to initiate and pursue formal dispute proceedings.
Our Role
- FTI Consulting developed robust valuation scenarios based on different assumptions regarding contracting strategies, liquidity constraints and valuation methodologies.
- The team modelled the commercial value of the denied capacity based on the differential in gas prices between the markets connected by the cross-border interconnection.
- Given the timing of the denial of access in 2022, when gas prices around Western Europe were volatile, specific attention was given to the question of liquidity constraints and their impact on trading value.
- By anticipating potential criticisms , the team were able to include detailed rebuttals, supported by sensitivity analyses.
Related Information
Published
November 18, 2025
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