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Global Transportation & Logistics Outlook: 4Q25 Quarterly Snapshot

The global Transportation & Logistics (“T&L”) sector closed 2025 in a state of fragile recovery. After a prolonged freight recession, early signs of stabilization are emerging across select modes, even as financial strain, overcapacity and uneven demand continue to reshape the competitive landscape. Trucking and air cargo show renewed momentum, ocean rates remain structurally low and warehousing faces near-term utilization pressure despite resilient pricing expectations. Meanwhile, M&A activity remains muted, favoring targeted, operationally driven consolidation over large-scale platform transactions.^1,2,3,4,5

What emerges is not a synchronized rebound, but a market entering 2026 with tightening pockets of capacity, selective pricing power and heightened execution risk for both shippers and carriers.

Truckload: Early Rate Recovery With Volatility Ahead

Truckload markets showed the clearest signs of cyclical inflection late in 2025. Spot truckload rates rose approximately 9% between mid-November and late December, reflecting a peak-season rebound from earlier lows.⁶ Tender rejection rates climbed above 13%, well beyond the 7–8% threshold that typically signals the start of a rate upcycle, indicating tightening capacity and increasing carrier selectivity.⁷

While contract rates remained largely flat in December, the spread between spot and contract pricing narrowed to its smallest level since March 2022.⁸ Capacity contraction pushed transportation pricing to its highest level since early 2025, signaling that carriers are beginning to regain leverage after an extended downturn.

Why It Matters:
Rising spot rates and reduced slack capacity suggest that 2026 transportation budgets should assume higher linehaul costs, particularly on volatile or seasonal lanes. As the economic advantage of riding the spot market diminishes, shippers may find greater value in securing core volumes through longer-term agreements that preserve performance flexibility. With carrier balance sheets still under pressure following record bankruptcies in 2025, further exits could amplify rate volatility if demand rebounds faster than expected.⁹

LTL: Pricing Discipline Despite Soft Volumes

The less-than-truckload (“LTL”) sector remains resilient on pricing even as demand stays subdued. The LTL Rate Per Pound Index reached a record high in Q4 2025 and is expected to ease slightly in early 2026 yet still mark the ninth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. Notably, LTL costs per shipment remain significantly elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, due to higher operating costs and a sustained decline in shipment weights.¹⁰

Manufacturing weakness continues to weigh on volumes, with the sector recording its tenth consecutive month of contraction by December 2025.¹¹ Even so, carriers have maintained pricing discipline, reflecting a structurally tighter and more rationalized LTL market.

Why It Matters:
As truckload capacity tightens further in 2026, incremental freight is likely to flow into LTL networks, reinforcing carriers’ ability to push modest rate increases.¹² Shippers should proactively rationalize shipment profiles, consolidate where feasible, and leverage dynamic routing strategies to mitigate accessorial exposure. Network designs that integrate truckload and LTL, such as pool points and cross-docks, will grow increasingly valuable as modal economics continue to shift.

Warehousing: Utilization Trough, Pricing Resilience

Warehousing experienced its most acute utilization pressure on record in late 2025. Utilization levels fell to historic lows, driven by inventory normalization and weaker manufacturing activity. Inventory indices declined sharply through Q4, underscoring continued destocking across supply chains.^13,14

Despite this near-term softness, pricing dynamics tell a different story. Warehouse pricing rose month-over-month in December, and forward-looking expectations indicate continued rent growth over the next 12 months.¹⁵ This divergence points to a bifurcated market, where high-quality assets retain pricing power even as broader utilization remains depressed.

Why It Matters:
Near-term occupancy pressure is likely to intensify competition for volume in secondary and non-core logistics markets. However, Class A, port-adjacent, and automation-ready facilities are positioned to outperform, widening the gap between modern and legacy assets. Shippers should reassess network footprints, favoring flexibility through shorter commitments and variable overflow capacity to avoid overpaying for underutilized long-term space.

Ocean: Overcapacity Keeps Rates Low

Ocean freight rates stabilized in Q4 2025 at levels well below those seen in 2024, reflecting persistent fleet overcapacity amid slowing global trade.^16,17,18 While geopolitical risks, particularly Red Sea disruptions, have lengthened transit times on some lanes, they have not materially reversed downward pricing pressure due to excess vessel supply.¹⁹

Asia–U.S. and Asia–Europe lanes remain volatile, with short-term general rate increases offset by structural oversupply and soft import demand, including U.S. imports projected to fall to their lowest level since 2020.^20,21

Why It Matters:
Shippers can secure relatively attractive ocean rates for 2026 but must plan for longer and less predictable lead times. Blended procurement strategies that lock in core volumes while preserving spot flexibility are increasingly attractive. Regulatory costs and geopolitical risks may introduce lane-specific surcharges, reinforcing the need for continuous lane-level monitoring and agile sourcing strategies.^22,23

Air: Tactical Strength in a Mixed Market

Air cargo delivered uneven but notable performance in 2025. Global demand grew modestly, with stronger momentum in December supported by e-commerce and AI-driven high-tech shipments.²⁴ Despite improving load factors, average airfreight spot rates declined year-over-year, particularly on transatlantic and Southeast Asian lanes.²⁵

Why It Matters:
Lower airfreight rates create opportunities for shippers to selectively shift time-sensitive SKUs from ocean to air without reverting to the cost structures of 2022–2023.^26,27 However, with demand growth expected to slow in 2026, air should remain a tactical lever rather than a structural shift — serving as a contingency option during ocean disruptions rather than a primary mode.

M&A: Selective Consolidation, Not Scale

M&A activity across T&L remained subdued in 2025, with deal volumes down materially from pandemic-era highs and very few large carrier transactions. Activity centered on small and mid-sized platforms, emphasizing geographic infill, service expansion and operational synergies rather than scale.²⁸

Notably, new entrants and adjacent players continue to blur traditional industry boundaries, signaling gradual convergence across fleet services, leasing and logistics.

Why It Matters:
With large-scale consolidation limited, competitive dynamics will continue to evolve regionally rather than nationally. Buyers are prioritizing resilience, density and execution capability, favoring tuck-in acquisitions over transformational mergers. This environment rewards disciplined operators with strong balance sheets and well-defined strategic niches.

For questions or comments on this quarterly report, please reach out to our Transportation and Logistics experts for more information.

Samantha Haberfield, a Senior Consultant in the Corporate Finance & Restructuring segment at FTI Consulting, contributed to this report.

Footnotes:

1: Maiden, Todd, “Tenney Group expects ‘dramatic increase’ in transportation M&A,” FreightWaves (January 26, 2026).

2: Arias, Evan, “The Great Capacity Purge: How Record Carrier Failures Are Reshaping the Freight Market in Late 2025,” Luna Logistics (November 19, 2025).

3: “DAT: Spot Truckload Rates Surged in December Despite Small Gains in Freight Volume,” DAT Freight & Analytics (January 14, 2026).

4: “Truckload rate outlook shifts higher for 2026,” C.H. Robinson (November 6, 2025).

5: “Traffix Trends Q4 2025,” Traffix (January 4, 2026).

6: “DAT: Spot Truckload Rates Surged in December Despite Small Gains in Freight Volume,” DAT Freight & Analytics (January 14, 2026).

7: Maiden, supra note 1.

8: “DAT: Spot Truckload Rates Surged in December Despite Small Gains in Freight Volume,” DAT Freight & Analytics (January 14, 2026).

9: Arias, supra note 2.