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Vietnam After the 14th Party Congress: Implications for Business

FTI Consulting is monitoring developments in Vietnam following the conclusion of the 14th National Party Congress on January 23, 2026, and is ready to support clients seeking a clearer understanding of the situation on the ground, whether for existing operations or prospective investments. This article forms part of our series of briefings designed to keep clients informed of emerging geopolitical, regulatory and commercial developments.

FTI Consulting is a leading global expert firm for organizations facing crisis and transformation, with extensive Asia-Pacific presence and a Southeast Asia headquarters in Singapore. We have significant experience supporting our clients in Vietnam.

The 14th National Party Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam concluded earlier than expected — wrapping up on Friday, January 23, rather than Sunday as anticipated. In a result which had been widely expected, To Lam was unanimously appointed as the General Secretary of the 14th Party Central Committee, receiving 180 of 180 votes. Lam’s appointment signals a further consolidation of power at the apex of the Vietnamese political system.

At the same time, Vietnam is expected to accelerate its economic development in the coming years. As Lam stated in his closing speech, the “overarching spirit” of the Congress term will be “strategic autonomy” and decisive action.¹ He emphasized the need to translate decisions into concrete results and to execute policy “to the end.”²

Investment Opportunities, Social Challenges

The appointment of Lam, the former Minister of Public Security, marks a shift away from Vietnam’s traditional “Four Pillars” model,³ which was designed to promote collective leadership and limit the concentration of power. FTI Consulting’s analysis has identified a range of plausible scenarios under Lam’s leadership; the most likely scenario, in our view, entails continued prioritization of social stability alongside an intensified focus on economic development.

Lam previously led Vietnam’s high-profile crackdown on corruption, known as “blazing furnace,” and since assuming leadership in 2024, the state security apparatus has expanded crackdowns in social disruption.⁴ In his closing speech, Lam underscored the “spirit of steadfastness” and “the continuation of historical currents and lessons from [Vietnam’s] reform process”.⁵

Lam and his government have also made it clear that economic growth and innovation are key to Vietnam’s future. Lam highlighted science, technology and national digital transformation as central pillars of Vietnam’s development strategy. He reaffirmed the goal of achieving high-middle-income and industrialized status by 2030, with the longer-term ambition of becoming a high-income developed economy by 2045.⁶

The government of Vietnam likely knows that it will be impossible to achieve these targets without streamlining bureaucracy, encouraging foreign investment, expanding the private sector and enhancing national infrastructure. As a result, we believe that Vietnam’s operating environment is likely to become more commercially attractive to foreign businesses and multinational corporations. However, investors must weigh these opportunities against market risks arising from the ongoing political consolidation and centralization.

How To Move Forward

As the Congress has only just concluded, it will take some time for policy direction to be established and decisions to be implemented. Vietnam is entering a period of rapid and consequential change. In our experience, businesses in such times — especially those looking to enter the country for the first time or expand operations — do not always have the resources to provide the intelligence and insight necessary to understand the key choices they face and appropriately implement enterprise risk management.

Key areas where companies will need help:

Strategic intelligence and country risk analysis for senior executives, with updates on geopolitical, regulatory and economic developments in Vietnam.
Stakeholder mapping and profiling to identify key actors inside and outside Vietnam, alongside risk treatments to protect and maximise opportunities for personnel, assets and operations.
Operational strategies, market entry, positioning and transaction timing – particularly for companies entering Vietnam, scaling or exiting operations, or assessing deal opportunities and tactical shifts to maximise value.
Scenario-based risk management to evaluate alternative investment pathways, quantify upside and downside exposure and stress-test adverse outcomes.
Business intelligence and factual reviews to support companies in assessing prospective counterparties and clarifying existing issues in Vietnam.
Export controls, sanctions and trade advice, increasingly critical given Vietnam’s geopolitical balancing act between major powers and within Southeast Asia.
Construction solutions and asset lifecycle management for construction, property and infrastructure investors, including dispute management, project continuity planning and the development of resilient operational strategies as Vietnam’s political and business environment evolves.
And where and when issues escalate, or look likely to escalate, crisis management support, with scenario-based governance, management and communications strategy and tactics to strengthen companies’ capabilities to respond and recover.

Companies with existing or planned operations in Vietnam will need this kind of expert analysis of the shifting political landscape, a map of key stakeholders and a means for translating macro developments into practice implications. The stakes are high, the conditions are still very much in flux and companies will need to set their path forward soon in order to chart their way to success.

FTI Consulting has a multidisciplinary team with more than 8,100 professionals operating across 32 countries and territories. Through its five core practices — Corporate Finance & Restructuring, Economic Consulting, Forensic & Litigation Consulting, Strategic Communications and Technology Services — FTI Consulting delivers a comprehensive, integrated suite of advisory services designed to support clients at every stage of the business cycle.

For more information, please reach out to our experts Michael Cullen, Andrew Macintosh, Rosie Hawes and Sarah Yan.

Footnotes:

1: Báo Tài nguyên Môi trường, “Full text of General Secretary To Lam’s closing remarks at the 14th National Congress,” Vietnam.vn (January 23, 2026).

2: Ibid.

3: The term “Four Pillars” (Tứ trụ) refers to the four top officials in Vietnam: the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, the President, the Prime Minister, and the Chair of the National Assembly. In recent years, this framework has increasingly been described as the “Five Pillars,” reflecting the inclusion of the Permanent Member of the Secretariat of the Communist Party of Vietnam.

4: Gavin Butler, “Who is To Lam, the ex-cop who wants to revamp Vietnam’s success story?” BBC (January 23, 2026).

5: Báo Tài nguyên Môi trường, “Full text of General Secretary To Lam’s closing remarks at the 14th National Congress,” Vietnam.vn (January 23, 2026).

6: Ibid.